It's barely 2008, but sports books in Las Vegas already haveposted their odds for the upcoming NASCAR Sprint Cup season.
To the surprise of absolutely no one, back-to-back championJimmie Johnson is the favorite to win the series title.
It also comes as no surprise that Joe Gibbs Racing's switch toToyota has lengthened the championship odds on Tony Stewart to 10-1at most books.
Inspired by the oddsmakers, I've decided to express my take onthe upcoming Cup season in terms of betting propositions, some ofwhich you might actually find at a Vegas sports book.
Odds that Jimmie Johnson will win a third straight Cup title: 4-1. That was the number I had in mind before I looked at the Vegasodds, which show a range from 4-1 to 7-2. Over the past two years,the No. 48 team has been the strongest unit within stock carracing's strongest organization, Hendrick Motorsports.
Johnson's willingness to drive on the edge with the title on theline impressed everyone in the sport in 2007. The only thing arguingagainst a third straight title is history.
Only one driver, Cale Yarborough (1976-78) has won three straightchampionships.
Odds that Chad Knaus will serve another suspension: 15-1.Johnson's crew chief will be on his best behavior in 2008 in lightof NASCAR's track record of vigorous prosecution of offensesinvolving the new racecar.
On the other hand, Knaus sat out the first four races of the 2006season, and Johnson won the title. Knaus served a six-racesuspension in 2007 for taking liberties with the front fenders ofthe new car, and Johnson won his second championship.
Is there a trend here?
Odds that Dale Earnhardt Jr. will win at least one race: 2-5.Earnhardt's prestige and credibility are on the line, and the samegoes for owner Rick Hendrick. They'll get to victory lane in 2008,come hell or high water.
Odds that Earnhardt will make the Chase for the NASCAR SprintCup: also 2-5. In Hendrick equipment, Earnhardt is as close to acan't-miss proposition as you can find. Last year, his Chase rundegenerated into an episode of Mission Impossible. ('Your mission,Mr. Earnhardt, should you decide to accept it, is to run your buttoff and challenge for the lead. Your engine will self-destruct withsix laps to go.') Improved reliability alone will assure him a spotin the Chase this year.
Odds that Toyota will win a race: even. The logic is that allthree Gibbs drivers -- Stewart, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin -- won'tbe shut out of victory lane in 2008. And don't rule out thepossibility of a win for Bill Davis Racing, Michael Waltrip Racingor Team Red Bull. The addition of Gibbs engine maven Mark Cronquistto the Toyota brain trust makes the Camry competitive.
Odds that an open-wheel interloper will win the Raybestos Rookieof the Year Award: 1-9. There's strength in numbers, and four open-wheel stars -- Sam Hornish Jr., Jacques Villeneuve, Dario Franchittiand Patrick Carpentier -- are battling Regan Smith for top rookiehonors. Just don't expect any of the 2008 rookie crop to duplicatethe 2007 performance of Juan Pablo Montoya, much less Hamlin'smemorable run in 2006.
Odds that an open-wheel rookie will win a race: 20-1. Again, nomember of the gang of four appears to be as quick a study asMontoya. If I had to pick a rookie to win a race, it would beCarpentier at Infineon or Watkins Glen.
Odds that there will be no first-time winners in 2008: 3-1. WithHendrick drivers claiming 18 of the 36 races in 2007, there wereonly four first-time winners last season, all with establishedteams: Casey Mears, Martin Truex Jr., Montoya and Clint Bowyer.
Who's left? My top two picks for possible breakthrough winnersare Reed Sorenson and Dave Blaney.
Odds that either David Ragan or Robby Gordon will cause the firstcaution of 2008: 6-1. Statistics don't lie. According to numberscompiled by USA Today, Ragan and Gordon led the Cup series with 22and 16 incidents/spins, respectively, in 2007. Together, they wereinvolved in more than 15 percent of the 240 wrecks and spins thattook place during the 2007 season.
The over-under on the last time a broadcaster refers to theSprint Cup Series as Nextel Cup or the Nationwide Series as theBusch Series: November. Old habits die hard.
